Zimbabwe is stepping up preparations for a potentially severe El Niño-induced drought, with the Government urging farmers to embrace Pfumvudza/Intwasa and traditional grains while working to build a 600 000-metric-tonne strategic grain reserve.
The measures come amid growing international concern over forecasts of a strong El Niño, which could bring reduced rainfall and heightened drought risks across Southern Africa during the 2026/27 agricultural season.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has estimated an 80% probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and August, rising to about 90% between September and December.
WMO Secretary-General, Professor Celeste Saulo, said most forecasting models pointed to at least a moderate El Niño, with the possibility of a stronger event.
“Our experts estimate an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge in the period between June and August 2026. This likelihood increases to around 90% through the remainder of the forecast period,” she said.
Zimbabwe has responded by strengthening early-warning and preparedness measures, while the Government is also focusing on food reserves and climate-smart agriculture.
Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development, Professor Obert Jiri, said Government was targeting 600 000 tonnes in the strategic grain reserve through phased procurement.
He said 150 000 tonnes had already been secured from the previous summer harvest, with another 150 000 tonnes expected from winter production. A further 150 000 tonnes will be targeted from the coming summer season, followed by another 150 000 tonnes from winter 2027.
Government is also targeting one million hectares under Pfumvudza/Intwasa, a conservation agriculture programme designed to maximise yields using limited rainfall and other resources.
“We are targeting one million hectares under Pfumvudza. So if every household does this, we are assured that even with the little rain that will come, they will harvest something,” Jiri said.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean rise significantly above average, triggering changes in global weather patterns. Scientists generally classify the phenomenon when temperatures rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average.
Zimbabwe’s Meteorological Services Department, however, said the eventual impact on the country’s rainfall and agriculture would depend on evolving conditions.
Acting Deputy Director, Isaac Masawana, said temperatures could rise to around 2.5 degrees Celsius above average, although the country’s agricultural forecast was still being developed.
“The temperatures are expected to go to at least 2.5 degrees and that will be the strongest. But here we are yet to give an agricultural forecast because our forecast depends on the patterns within the Pacific,” he said.
United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, said the developing El Niño presented governments and communities with an opportunity to prepare for potential risks before they materialised.
Farmers are also being encouraged to increase production of drought-tolerant traditional grains such as sorghum, millet and rapoko.
The strategy is anchored on early warning, early action and coordinated national preparedness as Zimbabwe seeks to protect food security and vulnerable communities from the potential effects of drought.
