The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has cautioned the nation to brace for a delayed and uneven start to the 2025/26 rainy season, with extended dry spells forecast for October and November.
MSD Director, Mrs Rebecca Manzou, said the first two months of the season are expected to bring normal to above-average temperatures, a trend that could heighten the likelihood of extreme weather events such as lightning strikes, strong winds and hailstorms.
“A delayed and erratic start is anticipated in our rainfall with initial dry spells in October and November,” she said.
According to Manzou, the rainfall pattern is linked to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, both of which are influential drivers of regional weather conditions.
She warned that prolonged dry periods could intensify water scarcity and increase the risk of water-borne diseases in vulnerable communities. Citizens, she stressed, should remain vigilant and adopt precautionary measures to protect their health and livelihoods.
Despite the difficult start, the MSD projects that conditions will gradually improve as the season advances, with rainfall performance likely to strengthen from December onwards.
The seasonal forecast shows significant regional contrasts. Southern and western parts of the country — including Matabeleland South, Matabeleland North, Midlands, Bulawayo and Masvingo — are expected to receive above-normal to normal rainfall.
These regions could benefit from increased soil moisture, supporting agricultural activities if farmers take advantage of the improved conditions later in the season.
Conversely, the northern provinces — Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West and Harare Metropolitan — may experience normal to below-normal rainfall. These areas face a heightened risk of mid-season dry spells and reduced water availability, which could negatively affect crop yields and livestock.
Manzou emphasised the need for communities, farmers and local authorities to plan carefully in anticipation of the erratic rainfall. She urged the agricultural sector to adopt climate-smart practices, such as staggered planting and water conservation techniques, to reduce potential losses.
Local councils and health institutions were also advised to strengthen preparedness for possible disease outbreaks arising from limited and contaminated water supplies.
The 2025/26 forecast comes at a critical time for Zimbabwe, where agriculture remains the backbone of the economy and the primary source of livelihood for the majority of rural households. Authorities are expected to collaborate with development partners to roll out awareness campaigns, promote early-warning systems and encourage communities to diversify their food and water sources
