The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has reduced the water allocation for electricity generation at Lake Kariba to 23 billion cubic metres (BCM) for 2027.
In a press statement, yesterday, ZRA Acting Chief Executive, Peter Kapinga, said the allocation was informed by forecasts of strengthening El Niño conditions, which are expected to affect rainfall and water inflows into the reservoir.
“The Authority has approved a combined water allocation of 23 billion Cubic Metres (BCM) for power generation at the Kariba Power Stations,” Kapinga said.
The allocation will be shared equally between Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) and Zambia’s ZESCO Limited, with each utility receiving 11.5 BCM, against the background of anticipated dry conditions across much of Southern Africa.
“The allocation is based on forecasts of strong El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall prevailing during the 2026/2027 rainfall season,” he said.
The regional climate outlook indicates that southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe could experience below-normal rainfall during the early part of the season, with dry conditions potentially extending across most areas of both countries between January and March 2027.
“For southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe, below-normal rainfall is expected during the early part of the season, with same likely to extend across most areas of both countries from January to March 2027,” Kapinga said.
The Authority projects that the approved 2027 allocation will leave Lake Kariba with 5.83 BCM of usable water by December 31, 2027, equivalent to 9% of live storage, underscoring the importance of carefully managing the shared resource.
“By 31st December 2027, this level of utilisation is projected to result in a closing lake level of 476.80 metres, with 5.83 BCM of usable water remaining, equivalent to 9% live storage,” he said.
Currently, the combined water allocation remains at 36 BCM after being increased from 30 BCM following improved inflows during the previous rainfall season. Each utility received 18 BCM for power generation.
“The increase was supported by the substantial inflows received during the previous rainfall season (2025/2026 rainfall season), which improved water availability in Lake Kariba,” Kapinga said.
Kapinga said the Authority would continue monitoring water utilisation and coordinating with the two power utilities to ensure compliance with approved allocations.
“The Authority has continued to monitor water utilisation on a daily basis and to coordinate with the Utilities through joint technical committee meetings,” he said, adding that the Authority would continue assessing water availability and communicating operational decisions as conditions evolve.
As of October 14, Lake Kariba stood at 480.65 metres above sea level, holding 23.77 BCM of usable water, representing 36.68% of usable storage capacity. This was a significant improvement from the same period last year, when usable water stood at 8.25 BCM.
The reservoir is expected to close 2026 with 16.24 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 25.10% of live storage, which will be available at the beginning of 2027.
